Total Gypsum Consumption to grow by 6% in 2010
12 February 2010
Leatherhead UK, 12 February 2010. The global gypsum market was estimated at 187 million tonnes in 2009 and is projected to grow to 264 million tonnes by 2014, according to a new study by IntertechPira published in association with PRo Publications.
Based on extensive primary research, The Future of Gypsum - market forecasts to 2014 quantifies global production and consumption of natural gypsum and by-product gypsum. It breaks down the major uses of gypsum in plasterboard, plaster and cement, plus smaller applications of gypsum and anhydrite in soil conditioners, specialised fillers and water treatment in all regional markets.
The study also analyses major producers of plaster and plaster products, including plasterboard. Some cement producers, especially in developing countries, may produce their own gypsum, but they tend to be small and supply local clinker grinding operations. The study analyses each end-use application, particularly the construction industry, the biggest gypsum consumer.
According to the study, EU demand for gypsum is expected to take until 2013 to recover to the peak level of 2006. It is expected that US demand will remain below peak demand but will recover to 2007 levels by 2014. Chinese markets have continued to grow and can be expected to grow more rapidly than the 5% growth in 2009, modest by Chinese standards. It is estimated that total gypsum consumption will grow by about 6% in 2010, with recoveries in Western economies and continued growth in China. The growth rate is likely to increase to about 7.8% in 2011 before levelling off at between 7.1% and 7.3% to 2014.
Gypsum and anhydrite are very common minerals found in substantial quantities in
evaporite rocks throughout the world. FGD gypsum is produced as a by-product of flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) at power stations fired by fossil fuel. Phosphogypsum is produced as a by-product at phosphate fertiliser plants. Titanogypsum is produced as a by-product at sulphate-route titanium dioxide plants. As gypsum is more suited to the production of plaster and because gypsum deposits tend to be at shallower depths overlying anhydrite, from which they may have been formed, the vast majority of production of these minerals is gypsum. Total gypsum demand was estimated at 187 million tonnes in 2009 and is projected to grow to 264 million tonnes by 2014, largely driven by China. EU demand is expected to take until 2013 to recover to the peak level of 2006. It is expected that US demand will remain below peak demand but will recover to 2007 levels by 2014.
A very large fraction of gypsum production is used in the construction industry as a setting retarder in Portland cement, in the manufacture of plasterboard and other plaster products, or as wet plaster. Much of the plasterboard production is vertically integrated; major plasterboard producers are the largest producers of gypsum in the West, although there are many small and sometimes very small producers, especially in developing countries that produce gypsum mainly for the cement industry or local wet plaster production. In North America, Europe and Japan, the largest use for gypsum is to make plasterboard. Cement is the world's largest application for gypsum. The US is by far the largest producer of plasterboard; plasterboard is 90% of US gypsum consumption when housing markets are strong. China is a relatively small but rapidly growing producer and consumer of plasterboard; its biggest use for gypsum is cement.
According to the study, the largest declines in gypsum for plasterboard have been in the US; this is because the recession produced a big fall in new housing construction. It is expected that house building will not return to 2007 levels until 2014 and it will probably take even longer to return to peak levels. EU demand is smaller. It has declined by a lower fraction and is likely to return to normal levels by 2011, although there are variations from country to country.
China's plasterboard consumption continues to grow from a much lower base than in the US or the EU, but China has overtaken Japan as the third largest producer and consumer of plasterboard. China has a low consumption of plasterboard per head, so growth is expected to remain strong for many years. Japanese consumption of gypsum in plasterboard is quite mature and will tend to follow overall trends in the construction industry, which is expected to be growing again by 2011.
Gypsum use in cement is much more widespread; outside North America, where plasterboard consumption is so high, gypsum use in cement is greater than gypsum use in plasterboard. China is the main growth driver in the cement sector. Some commentators have questioned whether some cement consumption statistics from China overstate actual use, but the general trends remain. In the short term, demand for gypsum in cement is predicted to rise faster than demand for gypsum in plasterboard, due to the effect of fiscal stimulus packages on the consumption of cement in infrastructure or other government projects. Growth largely depends on how long the fiscal stimulus packages continue.
As much of the gypsum consumption is in the construction industry, the global financial crisis has had a major impact on the sector. The US market has been particularly badly hit as it favours wood-framed housing with plasterboard cladding and the US can be 50% of the plasterboard market in a good year. As the housing market is depressed - very low levels of housing starts, less commercial construction and less remodelling - consumption of plasterboard has been depressed. The main drivers of demand in the US are new residential construction plus commercial construction and remodelling. Cement has wider markets in road and other infrastructure projects plus residential markets; as much as 50% of cement use is for public works.
Markets for plasterboard are considerably down from their peaks in 2006 because of the financial crisis and particularly its effect on the housing market in the US and elsewhere. Recovery is expected to be slow and seems unlikely until well into 2010. Fiscal incentive programmes are expected to help but there are still concerns about how long they will remain. Gypsum use in cement is expected to benefit significantly from government stimulus spending on infrastructure programmes in many regions. There has been strong growth in China but lower than in previous years.
IntertechPira expects growth to return in 2010 in North America after declines of about 13% in 2009 and close to 40% since the peak in 2005. Growth is expected to be fairly modest and, because of overbuilding in the US, it may be after 2014 that plasterboard consumption returns to its previous peak. Cement demand is expected to pick up faster in 2010 as the fiscal stimulus is spent on construction projects. European markets have not declined as far as those in the US and are expected to grow back to above previous peaks before 2014. Chinese markets have continued to grow and can be expected to grow more rapidly than the 5% growth in 2009, modest by Chinese standards. It is estimated that total gypsum consumption will grow by about 6% in 2010, with recoveries in Western economies and continued growth in China. The growth rate is likely to increase to about 7.8% in 2011 before levelling off at between 7.1% and 7.3% to 2014.
The Future of Gypsum - market forecasts to 2014 is available now. For further information please contact Bill Allen on +44 (0)1372 802086 or contact us online
Press contact: For editorial queries, details of the report or an expanded article please contact:
Rebecca Leigh +44(0)1372 802207 rebecca.leigh@pira-international.com
IntertechPira
IntertechPira provides market research, strategic and technical consulting to niche, emerging and high growth industries.
Market coverage includes lighting and displays, clean energy, home and personal care, industrial biotechnology, performance materials and chemicals. IntertechPira is a division of Pira International.
Associated market studies include The Future of Ferrous Slag and The Future of Green Cement (coming soon).