The IntertechPira Methodology: Statistical output

Focusing mainly on industrial, business-to-business markets, IntertechPira data is generally shown in terms of producer revenues (net value of shipments, ex-factory) and volumes, or in terms of market size calculated by apparent consumption (production plus imports less exports), adjusted where necessary for changes in stock levels. Where possible, historical data is based on data supplied by official governmental or trade association sources, although even here output is compared with information from other sources, including industry surveys on recent market trends. In other instances, assessment of market value is undertaken following direct contact with major industry players on a country-by-country basis, backed up by secondary research and various indications of general market trends. Industry surveys are especially useful in terms of pricing trends, particularly given that pricing is to a greater or lesser extent decoupled from GDP deflation or consumer price trends in many of the markets we follow.

In regard to very recent market performance, too soon for the publication of official, etc. data, and also for market forecasts, IntertechPira has in place statistical modelling tools for estimates and projections, taking into account a variety of factors. These include not only trends in downstream markets, but also trends in input markets (e.g. ink, paper and other consumables in the case of printing) and also the general operating environment.

The focus is mainly on trends in national markets, measured in local currency terms, as well as in terms of volumetric and constant price growth trends. The measure of constant prices is used to allow real comparisons to be made on a more volumetric basis or added-value basis, taking out the effect of fluctuating exchange rates and inflation. Internal databases are maintained showing market data both in terms of current and constant prices, with the current year selected as the base year for constant price data.

Projections for constant price growth are based on three key factors:

i) forecast volumetric growth or otherwise
ii) prospects for value-added growth and changes in product mix
iii) historical assessment of average price growth versus general inflation. Databases also show market values in terms of local currency and dollar/euro values, with current price data shown as current, year-on-year exchange rates and constant values shown using constant exchange rates based on projections of exchange rates for the current year

Triangulation

Using a range of primary and also secondary (including official) sources, IntertechPira collects and collates a broad range of information during market investigations. Once all research work is complete, while the analyst or consultant will be encouraged to use official sources of data, a process of triangulation of the various data, etc. inputs is then embarked upon in order to ensure that these are consistent in nature.

Typically, IntertechPira will consider the following inputs when making a market assessment:

• Official data, trade association data on a particular market
• Trends in end-user markets - are demand trends here consistent?
• Trends in upstream markets - is the experience of upstream suppliers in terms of raw materials supply consistent with volume trends in a particular market?
• Technological assessment - is future market development supported by technological developments?
• Industry surveys - mainly telephone, but sometimes online
• More general discussions with key players in the market

If it turns out during cross-examination of data that the different methods of market assessment have produced conflicting results, then further investigations are carried out. If all indicators are consistent, then we move onto the next stage of the process, the Delphi Technique, which brings in independent expert opinion.

Bottom-up and top-down approaches to market assessment

IntertechPira employs both bottom-up and top-down approaches for the majority of projects, although the degree to which each is applied varies. While IntertechPira has in place ongoing programme of updating top-line data for its key areas of expertise, it also carries out regular investigations into individual market segments and end-use markets for which alternative approaches are necessary. If necessary, data on end-use markets will be bought in to speed up the analytical process. The results of such investigations will be triangulated in the fashion described above.

Technological assessment

It is important at this juncture to say a little more about the impact of technological developments on markets. On the one hand, IntertechPira conducts regular surveys into disruptive technologies in key industries in an attempt to assess the extent to which these are likely to gain acceptance, and also the extent of their impact once achieving an initial foothold.

On the other hand, IntertechPira consultants and associates have a strong technical grounding and are able themselves to carry out detailed assessments of the potential of new technologies to make significant inroads or otherwise, over whatever timescale. They are also concerned with assessing whether their impact will lead to added-value growth within an industry, or whether their emergence will depend entirely on becoming cost-competitive with established products and methods.

Taking into account industry views on what represents acceptable pricing for new technologies, consultants and associates assess whether the claims for these technologies can be justified now or in the future, looking closely at any obstacles with the potential to obstruct full realisation. They consult on a regular basis with materials, machinery and other technology suppliers to establish current penetration levels, new orders and anticipated pricing trends, and then consult with customers and potential customers before producing a final assessment of the impact that these technologies will have.

IntertechPira consultants and associates also track developments in the installed base, as well as production capacity and other factors. This is to ensure that predicted demand growth can be catered for, and also provides indications as to the supply/demand situation and likely upward/downward pressures on pricing going forward.

Delphi Technique

All of the secondary and primary information generated during the research is re-assessed using the Delphi market research technique. IntertechPira's forecasting unit, RADAR (Research, Analysis, Development and Review), consisting of industry experts around the world, moderates the research findings to ensure the highest possible degree of accuracy.

The Delphi market research technique, an established method for moderating primary research, is defined as "a method of forecasting technological and other events by analysing the results of a questionnaire sent to a panel of experts who are therefore not subject to the inhibiting factors of a round table discussion".